Golf World predicts this year’s Open winner

1: NO SCANDINAVIAN HAS EVER WON A MAJOR.

So we’re confident in eliminating Peter Hanson, Alexander Noren, Thorbjorn Olesen, Carl Pettersson, Henrik Stenson, Fredrik Jacobson.

2: NO ASIAN GOLFER HAS EVER WON THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP.

So we can also take Kiradech Aphibarnrat, KJ Choi, Thongchai Jaidee, Kenichi Kuboya, Daisuke Maruyama, Hideki Maruyama, Thaworn Wirachant, Ashan Wu and YE Yang out of the equation.

3: THE LAST LEFT-HANDER TO WIN THE OPEN WAS BOB CHARLES, WAY BACK AT ROYAL LYTHAM IN 1963.

Which means we can bravely eliminate two of the big guns: Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson.

4: AGE IS A BARRIER AT THE OPEN. NO-ONE OVER THE AGE OF 46 HAS EVER WON THE OLD CLARET JUG.

So, with regret, we eliminate John Daly, Mark Calcavecchia, Todd Hamilton, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Tom Lehman, Sandy Lyle, Mark O’Meara, Peter Senior, Vijay Singh, Steve Stricker, Tom Watson and Nick Faldo.

5: THE LAST PERSON TO COME BACK AND WIN THE YEAR AFTER FINISHING RUNNER-UP WAS JACK NICKLAUS IN 1978.

Which makes it slightly easier to eliminate the Masters champion, Adam Scott.

6: THE LAST AMATEUR TO WIN THE OPEN WAS BOBBY JONES, 83 LONG YEARS AGO AT ROYAL LIVERPOOL IN 1930.

Therefore, we must cruelly crush the dreams of both Rhys Pugh and Steven Fox.

7: FROM THE 13 GOLFERS TO HAVE WON THE OPEN AT MUIRFIELD, ONLY HAROLD HILTON IN 1892 AND ALF PERRY IN 1935 HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY RECORDED A TOP-5 FINISH IN THE TOURNAMENT

Which makes a previous top-5 finish a prerequisite, which therefore eliminates a large number of hopefuls: Thomas Aiken, Keegan Bradley, Mark Brown, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Tim Clark, George Coetzee, Nicolas Colsaerts, Stephen Dartnall, Jason Day, Eduardo de la Riva, Jamie Donaldson, Jason Dufner, Derek Ernst, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Marcus Fraser, Robert Garrigus, Lucas Glover, Branden Grace, Bill Haas, Justin Harding, Billy Horschel, John Huh, Steven Jeffress, Zach Johnson, Martin Kaymer, Matt Kuchar, Darryn Lloyd, Shane Lowry, David Lynn, Hunter Mahan, Matteo Manassero, Francesco Molinari, Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy, Richie Ramsay, Brett Rumford, Charl Schwartzel, John Senden, Marcel Siem, Webb Simpson, Michael Thompson, Bo Van Pelt, Nick Watney, Bernd Wiesberger, Danny Willett.

8: THE LAST SIX OPEN CHAMPIONS AT MUIRFIELD HAD ALL WON MORE THAN TEN EUROPEAN OR PGA TOUR TITLES BEFORE WINNING AT MUIRFIELD

If this is any kind of guide, we must stick our necks right out in eliminating Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Brandt Snedeker, Graeme McDowell, Ben Curtis, Paul Lawrie, Stewart Cink, Justin Rose, Angel Cabrera, Rory McIlroy, Louis Oosthuzien. (note: If you count Sunshine Tour Oosthuizen has won more. We’re not counting Sunshine Tour)

9: THE LAST 20 PLAYERS TO WIN THE OPEN HAD ALL RECORDED AT LEAST A TOP-15 FINISH ON THE EUROPEAN OR PGA TOUR EARLIER IN THE SEASON.

Which is one valid reason to chop David Duval and Darren Clarke.

10: AND FINALLY, BEN CURTIS IS THE ONLY OPEN CHAMPION IN THE LAST 40 YEARS WHO HAD NOT WON A EUROPEAN OR PGA TOUR TITLE IN THAT SEASON OR THE TWO SEASONS PRIOR TO LIFTING THE CLARET JUG.

So our final cut removes Justin Leonard, two-time Open champion Padraig Harrington and Jim Furyk from the running.

So who does that leave us with?

Luke Donald, Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood…

GOLF WORLD’S WINNER: ERNIE ELS

From those six, Golf World’s man most likely is Ernie Els. Not only is the defending champion a tournament specialist, with two wins, three seconds, two thirds and five further top 10s in 22 Open appearances, he is also a course specialist with a fifth place and a win in his two starts over Muirfield. Add this to some solid performances in 2013 and the fact that defending champions have a relatively good recent record in the event (Tiger Woods won back-to-back titles in 2005 and 2006 and Harrington did the same in 2007 and 2008) and on this course (Nick Faldo won here in 1987 and 1992) and you have our tip.