REVEALED: Who will win the 2023 Open Championship?

Who will win the 2023 Open Championship?

Who will win The Open, 2023’s final men’s Major golf championship, at Hoylake?

Today’s Golfer’s 2023 Major coverage is brought to you in association with TaylorMade.

How has the major championship season gone so quickly?! It seems like only yesterday that golfers were driving into Augusta National and now the final event, The Open at Royal Liverpool, is upon us – from Magnolia Lane to Penny Lane in a matter of moments.

If the Masters is all about a test we know intimately and the US Open is the sport’s toughest trial, The Open is the original examination. It’s hosted on the linksland that was first utilized to play the game, on courses that have passed the test of time, in conditions that can switch from glorious to appalling in the blink of a weatherman’s eye, asking questions that are rarely posed in the modern game, with the ultimate prize not a trophy or a cup but a jug.

Truly, there is nothing quite like it.

This year sees a return to the Hoylake course that reappeared on the Championship rota in the first decade of the 21st century after an absence of nearly 40 years and the impact of the 2006 and 2014 tournaments has been profound. Not only has the course identified two high-class champions in Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, the off-the-course effect has been significant too.

Both of those editions witnessed huge crowds and the second also witnessed lots of unofficial corporate hospitality outside the grounds. The former factor has promoted the modern notion of the Championship being an all-ticket affair (and, moreover, sold out) while the latter has seen the R&A ensure that revenue from the corporate world comes its way via extensive on-course facilities.

There have been changes to the course, too, ahead of this year and we can expect another spectacular show. Liverpool is celebrated for its associations with show business and this century The Opens it has hosted have always delivered with razzmatazz, drama and the biggest stars. Who will take center stage on Sunday evening? Let’s take a look.

The key numbers

Typically, winners need Open experience. 2021 champion Collin Morikawa was an absolute outlier because his triumph was just the fifth for Championship debutants since the end of the Second World War. Moreover, nine of the last 10 winners had already banked a top 20 in the Championship while eight of them had a top 10 in the log book.

Form is also important: eight of the last 10 winners had already lifted a trophy in the year of their Open success and all 10 had a top 15 finish in at least one of their three previous starts (seven of them had a top three finish in that trio of results). World ranking is less important: the last 10 winners all ranked top 40 but were preceded by champions ranked 54th and 111th in the world. Age is an interesting one. Five of the last 12 winners were in their 20s (three of them 25 or younger) but six of that dozen were 35 or older (four of them in their 40s).

The Hoylake test

Tiger Woods famously used his driver just the once, on a par-5, during his victory in 2006. For the rest of the time he used 3-wood and 2-iron to avoid the card-wrecking bunkers. Rory McIlroy was not quite so severe in limiting himself, but his triumph eight years later was built on imperious ball-striking. Sergio Garcia and Jim Furyk both finished in the top five in 2006 and 2014. They might not have won, but these two long-game flushers were clearly a fit for the test.

Of the 12 players to finish tied fifth or better in the last two Opens at Hoylake, 11 played on the PGA Tour and nine of them ranked top 25 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green arriving at the event. The winners ranked first (Woods) and second (McIlroy).

This suggests the course favours long game experts and longer historical trends suggest elite links performers thrive there. 1947 champion Fred Daly’s win was one of five top four finishes in the seven Opens immediately after the Second World War. Peter Thomson’s win in 1957 came plum in the middle of a run of seven consecutive Open finishes in the top two. Roberto Di Vicenzo? He played 13 Opens between 1948 and 1969, finishing top 10 in 11 of them, winning at Royal Liverpool in 1967.

Woods’ triumph in 2006 was a fourth top 10 in a row at the championship and a second win in as many years. McIlroy wasn’t in a sweet spot but his win began one: he finished top five in his next three starts.

Conclusion: Royal Liverpool demands supreme ball-striking and links pedigree.

The new 17th

There is a big change in the layout this year. The old par-3 15th has been scrapped and replaced with a short hole that plays on the same plot of land but in the opposite direction. It is also now the 17th hole, fiendishly designed and expected to play a huge role in the destiny of the Claret Jug.

From a low tee, it only plays around 140 yards to a green perched high in the dunes with bunkers and waste ground in all directions. The pin position will be determined by the expected wind direction but, of course, that can change rapidly and unpredictably. This one shot, played four times, is going to be crucial. An exceptional wedge game, allied to ice-cold nerve, is going to be vital to avoid disaster.

Conditions

Never overlook the weather in Hoylake – it always seems to be a factor in this part of the world. In 2006 it was hot, very hot, boiling hot in fact. Faces in the gallery were red, the fairways were brown, Sergio Garcia wore yellow.

Six years later, at the Women’s Open, the weather could not have been a greater contrast: it was cold, it was wet and the wind howled. Play was suspended at one stage moments before some players were considering a mutiny. And remember 2014? The threat of storms on the Saturday prompted the R&A to send the field out from two tees in the third round. Within minutes of the end of play there was a deluge but to this day many grumble that The Open should never be meddled with in such a fashion.

What will this year throw at us? The current forecast suggests a fair amount of rain in the build-up and on tournament days. Thursday could be gusty but thereafter nothing too outlandish. Be prepared, though.

The designated event effect?

Ahead of the Masters there was much talk about lightly-raced LIV golfers being under-cooked. But when Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship and Wyndham Clark claimed the US Open the narrative changed. The PGA Tour’s 2023 schedule response to LIV was arranged around designated events with enormous purses and an edict for the stars not to miss them.

Jon Rahm won at Augusta National but then had to play Harbour Town (which he wouldn’t normally have done) and also River Highlands (ditto). He didn’t fare too well in either and on top of all the early season designated events he might be wondering if he and his fellow PGA top dogs are over-cooked. The sample size is currently too small for us to draw definitive conclusions, but bear it in mind.

The Scottish Open Factor

There have been 11 Championships since the Scottish Open, the tournament which always precedes it, was moved from inland Loch Lomond to the Scottish seaside. In that time seven Open winners played the entire fortnight, using the first event to tweak their game ahead of the second.

Henrik Stenson said after his win seven years ago: “If you are going to be properly prepared for The Open you have to either play the course, play a links course somewhere or play the Scottish Open.” We can guess that Shane Lowry, one of the exceptions, played links golf ahead of his win at Royal Portrush and Jordan Spieth, another odd one out, liked to visit Ireland before becoming a regular Scottish Open competitor.

The other two who didn’t play the Scottish excelled elsewhere: Zach Johnson and Francesco Molinari both warmed up with a top-three finish in the John Deere Classic. That event is no longer the week before The Open, adding to the feeling that the Scottish Open is a key pointer.

Who will win The Open? Our picks

This is a brutal sifting. Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau didn’t enter the Scottish Open while McIlroy and Xander Schauffele have poor numbers in the 125-150 range.

Scottie Scheffler

Odds? 9/1
Open pedigree? 8th on debut in 2021, 21st last year
Strong form? Never outside the top 12 all year, two-time winner
Ranking for SG Tee to Green? 1st
Ranking for Approaches 125-150 yards? 7th
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes

The leader in SG T2G coming into a Royal Liverpool 21st century Open has won and finished second so we won’t argue with that or with the sensational state of Scheffler’s ball-striking. Also note that he has played eight rounds of Open golf and been in the top 10 at the end of seven of them. When he triumphed in the Phoenix Open earlier this season he said: “I like fast running golf courses.” The course won’t run as fast as 2006 but the fairways will be on the fast scale for an American.

Jordan Spieth

Odds? 20/1
Open pedigree? Winner in 2017, second in 2021, one shot outside a play-off in 2015
Strong form? Half a dozen top six finishes in 2023 including fifth at the Memorial
Ranking for SG Tee to Green? 25th
Ranking for Approaches 125-150 yards? 14th
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes

Remember how those Hoylake Open winners were on a great run in the Championship? Spieth has never missed a cut in nine visits and has four top 10s in his last five starts. Links golf fires his brain and allows him to display his full creativity, and the stats like him, too.

Tommy Fleetwood

Odds? 25/1
Open pedigree? Second in 2019, fourth last year
Strong form? Play-off defeat in Canada followed by fifth in the US Open
Ranking for SG Tee to Green? 7th
Ranking for Approaches 125-150 yards? 34th
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes

Although he’s a links-lover he had early problems with The Open but has turned that around in style. In fact, he’s sat inside the top 10 at the end of a round in each of his last four starts. This pick was a close call with Tyrrell Hatton but Fleetwood gets the nods due to that sustained quality and experience in the Championship.

Shane Lowry

Odds? 33/1
Open pedigree? Winner in 2019
Strong form? Four top 20s in his last five starts
Ranking for SG Tee to Green? 16th
Ranking for Approaches 125-150 yards? 57th
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes

The Irishman’s first top-10 finish in an Open came at Royal Liverpool in 2014 and since his victory in 2019 he’s finished 12th on defence and 21st last year. He’s also just very consistent in majors: nine top 25s in his last 11 starts, in fact.

His form might be on the rise, too, after he finally got the putter warmed up at the end of last month. Note that although his Approach ranking for the 125-150 yard range is poor he does rank 12th for Greens in Regulation from that range.

READ NEXT:
– THE OPEN 2023: Full field and how they qualified

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