US Open Golf 2023: Who will win at Los Angeles Country Club?

Who will win the 2023 US Open?

Who will win the 2023 US Open Championship, the year’s third men’s golf Major?

Today’s Golfer’s 2023 Major coverage is brought to you in association with TaylorMade.

Ah, the US Open – a tournament that is, by proud tradition, to the world golf’s elite what a 100-hour week in A&E is to a junior doctor.

Obviously, unlike that situation, life and death is not on the line, but in golfing terms this is a championship that thrives on relentless pressure. If the Masters examines a golfer’s sense of drama and the Open his creativity, the US Open’s principle test is of endurance.

And yet, this year might be a little different. True, the USGA are still in control of the course so we can expect a typically brutal set-up. But the venue – and the city which surrounds it – hints at a subtly distinct US Open week.

Los Angeles Country Club is the host and, while it hosted five LA Opens before the Second World War, it has never welcomed a major championship. It’s a highly respected track and yet a quirky one in many ways, in particular in the sense that, unlike most US Open venues, there is not just the opportunity to run the ball into greens sometimes it is actually the optimum strategy.

If that playing feature hints at an unusual US Open the backdrop confirms it. LA CC is not just in the show business capital of the world, it is an integral part of it with a Wilshire Boulevard address and neighbors that include the Beverly Hilton, the Playboy mansion and numerous celebrity homes.

We’re set for quite a week but who’s going to win the Oscar for Best Golfer? Let’s open the envelope and see what the stats and trends tell us.

The trends that matter

For all that the US Open is a traveling major, the USGA’s template for a stiff inspection (thick rough, fast-running fairways, hard and rapid greens) means that trends do emerge among the winners.

Of the last 10 editions, the oldest champion was 35. That makes some sense: the courses are long and the grass gnarly so it is physically tough. All of the 10 had experience of finishing top 25 in the US Open and none of them had more than eight appearances prior to their win which again makes sense given their youth but it also hints that an element of long-term fatigue sets in. One of the winners had played just three championships, another four, the rest had five to eight under their belt.

Then there is quality: all 10 were sitting inside the world’s top 30 when they triumphed and nine of them had a top three finish in their log book for the year. It would surely have been all 10 but for Jon Rahm being pulled out of the Memorial Tournament following a positive Covid test when six clear with 18 holes to play ahead of his US Open breakthrough.

All of these factors are solid but they also don’t delete too many of the world’s elite so let’s go deeper.

Did the PGA Championship drop a big hint?

When Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship last month he maintained a long-running trend in the majors: he became the 23rd of the last 25 winners who had contended in one of the three majors that preceded his triumph (that is: finishing in the top eight or sitting in the top four with 18 holes to play).

It’s just possible, however, that we can narrow that down a little because since the PGA Championship was moved in the schedule – from August to May – US Open winners have dropped big hints in it. Again, that kind of makes sense because the PGA Championship is something of a mini-me US Open using similar courses around the States.

The calendar change first happened in 2019 when Gary Woodland was tied eighth in the PGA. A year on, delayed by Covid, both events took place in late summer but Bryson DeChambeau was fourth in the PGA. In 2022 Jon Rahm warmed up with tied eighth and last May Matt Fitzpatrick was tied fifth. We won’t rely on this trend but we’ll take good note of it.

Course experience

Last year’s winner Fitzpatrick completed a remarkable double at The Country Club in Brookline because he’d also claimed the US Amateur Championship there in 2013. And he succeeded Jon Rahm whose triumph came at Torrey Pines, a course he had won the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open on.

Those two wins suggest that course knowledge certainly helps but it’s most often thin on the ground at a US Open venue and that is also the case this week. However, a few competitors do have some experience because the 2017 Walker Cup was held at LA CC and was notable for featuring a particularly strong US Team (which whipped GB&I 19-7). Collin Morikawa won all four of his matches that week, the now-injured Will Zalatoris three of four but Scottie Scheffler was only called upon twice (winning one point).

The course itself

The bare details don’t quite explain what a potentially unique test LA CC could be. A par 70 set at around 7,381 yards sounds like many other US Open tracks, right? Maybe think again.

First of all, there are five (yes, five) par-3s. But even that doesn’t scratch the surface. One of them, the seventh, is on the scorecard at 284 yards while the 11th will be 290 yards. Meanwhile, the sixth is a 330-yard par-4 with a green that can also be attacked from the tee.

Just to add to the funkiness the par-3 15th measures just 124 yards on the card and might even measure a mere 85 yards at one point in the week. It sits within a brutal closing set of six holes that includes four par-4s that are all at least 492 yards in length together with a par-5 over 600 yards.

Aside from the quirkiness of the card, the 11th does reveal a key characteristic of the challenge because, while long, that hole is downhill and landing the ball short of the putting surface and running it in is very much a built-in design option. Nor is it unique. Local resident Max Homa says: “You can play the ball along the ground a lot at LA.”

An expert on California’s Poa Annua, Homa might be a little disappointed that the club has more or less entirely eradicated it from their greens. He also noted that, although LA CC is designed by George Thomas, as Riviera Country Club (home of the Genesis Invitational) is, the test is different: Riviera is tighter from the tee while the USGA has maintained LA’s width and Homa argues length is an asset.

“It’s very much a US Open course,” said Tommy Fleetwood after his February recce there. “You’re going to have to use every asset of your game.” Shane Lowry added that scoring will be typical of a US Open i.e. tough.

“The big thing is around the greens,” insisted the defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick. “It looks like you can’t miss them, it’s going to be really difficult to make up and downs.” Adam Scott agreed: “When I look at a course with a set of greens like that, iron control is going to be at a premium. The guy who has his irons under control is going to have a big advantage because it is easy to get it away from the hole if you miss.”

Stat attack

Let’s return to those last 10 US Open winners. Seven of them were in the top 20 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green that season heading into the championship. One of the exceptions was Martin Kaymer who was still 37th and was held back by poor Around the Green numbers, a factor he got away with because he could putt from around Pinehurst’s shaved run-offs. The other two outlier performances came from Brooks Koepka who was – and maybe is again – a major machine.

It’s also the case that all of the seven were ranking top 20 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee. So did Kaymer and so did Koepka ahead of one of his wins. LA CC is going to be wider than most US Opens but errors are still likely to be punished.

Then we’ve got to think of LA CC. Two monster hits to the par-3s, two of the par-5s measure 590 and 623 yards, six of the par-4s are between 480 and 542 yards. This will be a sustained test of longer approach shots than is normal.

Who will win the US Open? Our picks

Jon Rahm: Each Way at 9/1 with Ladbrokes

Contended in one of the last three majors? Won the Masters.

Strong 2023 form? A four-time winner.

US Open record? Seven starts and the winner in 2021.

Ranking for SG Tee to Green and SG Off the Tee? 3rd and 17th.

We need one from the top of the market and Scottie Scheffler, who ranks first for both of the key Strokes Gained categories, clearly has a strong case. But the PGA Tour produces stats on approaches over 200 yards, including increments of 25 yards, and while Rahm ranks highly in all of them, Scheffler doesn’t rank top 60 for one. Rahm won his US Open in California and says of his good record in Ireland that he likes the quirky designs there. He might feel the same about LA CC.

Viktor Hovland: Each Way at 18/1 with Ladbrokes

Contended in one of the last three majors? Fourth at the Open, seventh in the Masters and second in the PGA Championship.

Strong 2023 form? Won the Memorial Tournament.

US Open record? Four starts with a best of 12th.

Ranking for SG Tee to Green and SG Off the Tee? 11th and 7th.

The Norwegian has turned a consistent-without-contending major championship record into one in which he keeps knocking on the door. Patience and improved course management helped him win two weeks ago at Muirfield Village and will be an asset again in LA. Like Rahm he has good stats hitting approaches over 200 yards.

Corey Conners: Each Way at 80/1 with Skybet

Contended in one of the last three majors? Second after 54 holes at the PGA Championship.

Strong 2023 form? Winner of the Texas Open.

US Open record? Four starts, yet to make the cut.

Ranking for SG Tee to Green and SG Off the Tee? 20th and 22nd.

The Canadian needs to buck one trend because he’s yet to land a US Open top 25, but he fits others. He contended at Oak Hill (and in the past at the Open and in the Masters), he’s a winner this year and he has good Strokes Gained rankings. He also ranks top five for hitting Greens in Regulation when approaches are over 200 yards.

Tommy Fleetwood: Each Way at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

Contended in one of the last three majors? Fourth in the Open.

Strong 2023 form? Third in the Valspar Championship.

US Open record? Seven starts, finishing fourth in 2017 and second in 2018.

Ranking for SG Tee to Green and SG Off the Tee? 10th and 68th.

He’s enjoyed this championship in the past and, as a linksland specialist, might like that he can run the ball into the greens. His Off the Tee numbers are not great but have headed in a better direction in recent weeks and, at his best, he has produced good figures.

BECOME A TODAY’S GOLFER MEMBER: Unlimited access to premium content and exclusive rewards!

READ NEXT:
– Brooks Koepka: “Retirement had crossed my mind”
– Collin Morikawa has his eye on more Majors