Who will win the 2023 US PGA Championship at Oak Hill?

Who will lift the Wanamaker trophy at the 2023 US PGA Championship?

Who will win the 2023 US PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club and which golfers should I back to lift the year’s second men’s Major?

Today’s Golfer’s 2023 Major coverage is brought to you in association with TaylorMade.

The US PGA Championship consistently produces the strongest field in golf, which makes it harder than ever to choose a winner, but our Majors expert Matt Cooper is here with all the information you’ll need.

156 players will tee it up at Oak Hill as Justin Thomas tried to defend the Wanamaker Trophy on the New York country club’s East Course.

For so long the odd one out among the Majors, the US PGA Championship has been revitalized by it’s move in the calendar from August to May.

But remember the bad old days pre-2019? Like the fourth son of a King, it was almost as if the sport had never quite worked out what to do with it. The Open was the first born, the Masters all pomp and ceremony, the US Open had heritage, but the PGA Championship? All a little bit awkward.

It was usually hot and sweaty (because it was played at the height of the American summer), it had low self-esteem (at one point branding itself ‘Glory’s Last Shot’) and, just to make matters worse, for a long period it had the unfortunate habit of throwing up unlikely winners who really did resemble an unwanted offspring.

This year’s venue has seen it all in during the three PGA Championships it has hosted. In 1980 the great Jack Nicklaus triumphed, in 2013 the in-form and on-trend Jason Dufner prevailed, and in-between (in 2002) Shaun Micheel, a journeyman with just four PGA Tour top fives to his name at the time, had his name etched onto the famous trophy.

It’s a good course and there is the promise of extra spice after LIV golfers performed so well at the Masters. Can one of them claim the rebel bridge’s first Major Championship victory?

Rory McIlroy will have to bounce back from the deflating experience of his missed cut at Augusta National, Scottie Scheffler also looked a little tetchy in his defense of the green jacket and Jon Rahm will be looking to add to his Major Championship plunder… and that’s all before we even mention Jordan Spieth’s career grand slam challenge.

Let’s dig deep into the history books as we begin the quest to identify this year’s champion.

The numbers that count

Unlike the Masters, the year’s second Major enjoys a nomadic existence but that hasn’t stopped a certain set of constants emerging among the winners, ones that allow us to reduce the field to manageable short-list levels. The first cull takes in the PGA club pros who earn 20 spots. It’s a great week for them, but they won’t be winning. An easy start. Now let’s get serious.

Quality? Yes, nine of the of the last 10 winners ranked top 30 in the world ahead of their victory.

Good form? Definitely: nine of the 10 winners had a top-four finish in the year and eight of the 10 had a top-20 finish in at least one of their two previous starts.

And what about championship form? Yes again: nine of the 10 had a PGA Championship top 20 with eight of them already owning a top 10 finish (Collin Morikawa was a tournament debutant but admitted winning in front of no crowds during COVID was a huge advantage).

Knowing how to contend in a Major

Let’s revisit a point made ahead of the Masters: recent Major champions just don’t rock up with no experience of Sunday pressure in the tournaments that define a career. Instead, they’ve been recently introduced (or re-introduced) to the business of sleeping on Saturday night in the top four or finishing Sunday in the top eight.

This is a trend that really sorts the vintage from the plonk. Since the start of 2017, no less than 22 of the 24 Major winners had just the experience explained above in one of the three Majors that preceded their triumph. It might seem like a case of the bleeding obvious for the likes of Rahm and Scheffler, but it’s also true of outsiders such as Danny Willett and Gary Woodland. It really matters.

A relationship with the host course

Recent Majors have shown that good course vibes can prove vital. Last year Matt Fitzpatrick completed the US Amateur/US Open double at The Country Club in Brookline and in 2021 Jon Rahm completed his major breakthrough in the US Open at Torrey Pines, a course he both adores and which he had already won on.

All well and good that, but Oak Hill hasn’t been used for 10 years. For what it’s worth, though, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy all finished top 10 there in 2013 (without ever really contending) while Adam Scott was fifth after leading early in the week. Rory also happens to be a long-time member here.

We don’t have Strokes Gained stats from the 21st century majors hosted at the club but regular numbers might provide a clue. In 2003 Micheel ranked third for Greens in Regulation with runner-up Chad Campbell first. Ten years later Dufner ranked third with runner-up Jim Furyk sixth. What’s more, in the two senior majors on the course this century the top two also both ranked top six for GIR.

Also, consider the location of Oak Hill: it’s in New York and the galleries there are well-known for their raucous nature. Any sign of weakness will be preyed on with jeers, cat calls and outright abuse more or less a given. The flipside is that if players get them onside, those fans will cheer their every move. Perhaps another plus for Rory, who doesn’t struggle to get the fans’ backing anyway, is that his wife is from Rochester – a suburb just north-west of Oak Hill.

The course was also designed by Donald Ross who was also responsible for East Lake, Oakland Hills, Detroit, Sedgefield, Pinehurst and Aronimink which have all hosted majors and/or the PGA Tour in recent years.

What the players say about Oak Hill

Tiger Woods has always been a good judge of a test and he said 10 years ago: “You’ve just got to bring your ball-striking. You’ve got to hit the ball well.” Lee Westwood backed that up saying: “There’s a premium on hitting the fairways and hitting the greens.” Rory McIlroy? He said: “It’s not an overly-long golf course, but you have to be really precise.”

Strokes Gained Tee to Green (taking in tee shots, approach shot and recoveries around the green) looks key. Furthermore, in the nine years since Strokes Gained data has been collected, six of nine PGA Championship winners ranked top four in the category and the two exceptions were golfers who typically perform that highly in the same category’s seasonal rankings.

Phil Mickelson added a nice distinction, saying: “My favorite thing about great championship courses is when the easy holes are birdie-able and the hard holes really hard. Oak Hill does that exceptionally well. There are holes you expect birdie from the tee and some holes are the hardest pars in the game.”

The Colonial Factor

Twelve months ago there was a straightforward link between the venue Southern Hills and Colonial Country Club (annual host of the Charles Schwab Challenge) in the shape of Perry Maxwell, the designer of both layouts. As we’ve already established, that particular connection doesn’t exist this year.

However, there are good reasons to think that Colonial remains a good pointer, this time in the shape of the golfers who have finished first or second in Major championships at Oak Hill.

In the 1956 US Open Carey Middlecoff won from Ben Hogan and Julius Boros – the first two were Colonial winners and Boros a runner-up there. In the 1968 US Open Lee Trevino triumphed ahead of Jack Nicklaus – both of them Colonial winners and Nicklaus also won the 1980 PGA Championship at Oak Hill. 1989 US Open champion Curtis Strange never won at Colonial but he did finish in the top five no less than four times.

2003 PGA champion Shaun Micheel did nothing at Colonial but the men who chased him closest (Chad Campbell and Tim Clark) both finished second there. And the same can be said for Jason Dufner and Jim Furyk, the 1-2 in the 2013 PGA Championship.

Colonial is known for its dog-legs while Oak Hill has a lot of straight holes. But small greens are a constant and those results are quite persuasive.

Who will win the PGA Championship? Our picks

Jon Rahm: Win at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

Contended in one of the last three Majors? Won the Masters

Strong 2023 form? A four-time winner

Best finish in the PGA Championship? Fourth at Bellerive in 2018

Ranking for Greens in Regulation and SG Tee to Green? 3rd and 2nd

It’s a big ask to go back-to-back in the majors but the Spaniard has the bit between his teeth this year. Moreover, multiple major winners grab their titles in bundles so the next two to three years should be his sweet spot. He’s finished second and fifth at Colonial, and was also the low scorer at East Lake in 2021. Of the favorites, Scheffler might be his biggest threat. His stats are as good and he very nearly won at Oak Hill last year. McIlroy has poor GIR stats.

Scottie Scheffler: Win at 9/1 with bet365

Contended in one of the last three Majors? Second in the US Open

Strong 2023 form? A two-time winner

Best finish in the PGA Championship? Fourth in 2020 at Harding Park

Ranking for Greens in Regulation and SG Tee to Green? 1st and 1st

Don’t shoot the messenger. Another of the three favorites but, when the dust settles, it is what the books tell us. He’s contending in majors for fun and he even managed to become a rare Masters defending champion who finished top 10. He’s a winner for the year, he has championship form and he also only lost at Colonial last year in extra holes. (McIlroy, by the way, has poor GIR numbers.)

Jordan Spieth: Each Way at 20/1 with PaddyPower

Contended in one of the last three Majors? Fourth in the Masters

Strong 2023 form? A quartet of top-four finishes

Best finish in the PGA Championship? Second at Whistling Straits in 2015

Ranking for Greens in Regulation and SG Tee to Green? 67th and 19th

Assuming Spieth recovers from the wrist injury that ruled him out of the AT&T Byron Nelson, he may never have a better chance to complete the career grand slam. If there really is an Oak Hill/Colonial link the Texan will be in heaven because he’s played that course 10 times, only once finished worse than 14th and has registered one win and three runner-up finishes. He’s also been a winner (and second) at East Lake.

Keegan Bradley: Each Way at 66/1 with PaddyPower

Contended in one of the last three Majors? Seventh in the 2022 US Open

Strong 2023 form? Second at Torrey Pines (he’s also a winner this season albeit in October)

Best finish in the PGA Championship? Winner in 2011

Ranking for Greens in Regulation and SG Tee to Green? 100th and 48th

The stats don’t like him much but he’s enjoying a form revival, he’s been a winner on a Donald Ross design (the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink) and he finished top 20 on the course in 2013. He’s an interesting outsider who likes straight holes, as a win at Firestone and that second at Torrey Pines indicate.

Selected other betting odds for the 2023 US PGA Championship*

10/1: Rory McIlroy

20/1: Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas

22/1: Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith

25/1: Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland

28/1: Matt Fitzpatrick

30/1: Dustin Johnson

33/1: Max Homa

35/1: Sam Burns, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im

45/1: Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala

50/1: Tyrrell Hatton

55/1: Jaoquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Talor Gooch

66/1: Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Joohyung Kim

75/1: Rickie Fowler

80/1: Wyndham Clark

90/1: Bryson DeChambeau

100/1: Phil Mickelson

175/1: Adrian Meronk

2,500/1: Shaun Micheel, John Daly, Rich Beem

*Odds taken from Bet365 and correct at 2pm on May 9, 2023

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About the author

Matt Cooper
Contributing Writer

Matt Cooper has been a golf journalist for 15 years. He’s worked for, among others, Golf365, SkySports, ESPN, NBC, Sporting Life, Open.com and the Guardian. He specializes in feature writing, reporting and tournament analysis.

He’s traveled widely in that time, covering golf from Kazakhstan to South Korea via Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

More straightforwardly, he’s also covered numerous Majors, Ryder Cups and Solheim Cups.

Follow Matt on Twitter.