Ten steps to Masters Champion

#1

We have some bad news for the seven amateurs in the field, each of the 78 Masters Tournaments have been won by a professional. 

Which is why our first cut ends the hopes of Corey Conners, Matias Dominguez, Scott Harvey, Byron Meth, Antonio Murdaca, Bradley Neil and Gunn Yang.

#2

Augusta is not a happy hunting ground for Asian golfers. The best Masters finish by someone from that continent is KJ Choi’s 3rd place in 2004.

With regret we bid farewell to Sang-Moon Bae, Thongchai Jaidee, Anirban Lahiri, Hideki Matsuyama and Seung-Yul Noh.

#3

Only Guldahl (1939), Nelson (’42), Palmer (’62), Nicklaus (’65, ’72), Casper (’70) and Crenshaw (’84) have won the Masters the year after finishing second.

Sadly, we extinguish the challenge of last year’s joint runners-up Jonas Blixt and Jordan Spieth.

#4

Contrary to popular belief, age is not an advantage at Augusta. None of the last 16 Masters champions have been 40 or over.

Thus we reluctantly remove Thomas Bjorn, Angel Cabrera, Darren Clarke, Fred Couples, Ben Crenshaw, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Stephen Gallacher, Miguel-Angel Jimenez, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Phil Mickelson, Larry Mize, Mark O’Meara, Jose Maria Olazabal, John Senden, Vijay Singh, Steve Stricker, Tom Watson, Mike Weir, Lee Westwood and Ian Woosnam from the equation.

#5

Twelve of the last 15 winners have tasted victory at least once on the Australian, European, PGA or Sunshine Tour in the preceding 12 months.

Which means, at the time of writing, we regretfully eliminate Rickie Fowler, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter and Kevin Stadler.

#6

Since 1948, Bernhard Langer in 1985 and Charl Schwartzel in 2011 are golfers to make the Masters their first PGA Tour title.

So we remove anyone who has yet to record a PGA Tour victory, ending the chances of Jamie Donaldson and Joost Luiten.

#7

Thirty-two of the last 33 Masters winners had a previous major top-10 finish to their name.

Our seventh hurdle cuts down Bill Haas, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman and Gary Woodland.

#8

The last 17 Augusta winners all played in and made the cut in the previous year’s Masters.

So it’s goodbye Keegan Bradley, Tim Clark, Erik Compton, Ben Crane, Luke Donald, Victor Dubuisson, Jason Dufner, Sergio Garcia, Branden Grace, James Hahn, Brian Harman, Charley Hoffman, Morgan Hoffmann, JB Holmes, Mikko Ilonen, Trevor Immelman, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alexander Levy, Shane Lowry, Ben Martin, Graeme McDowell, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Geoff Ogilvy, Ryan Palmer, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb, Brendan Todd, Cameron Tringale, Camilo Villegas, Bernd Wiesberger, and Danny Willett.

#9

The last seven golfers to win their first major title at Augusta have all been aged 33 or under.

This sees us cut 36-year-olds Matt Kuchar and Jimmy Walker, 34-year-old Brandt Snedeker and 38-year-old Henrik Stenson.

#10

Ralph Guldahl (1939), Ben Hogan (’51), Jack Nicklaus (’63) and Tiger Woods (’01) are the only golfers to win the Masters as reigning US Open champion.

This means our final step trips up 2014 US Open champion Martin Kaymer.

Which leaves….

Justin Rose

If Rory McIlroy plays his best golf, he will win. But we have a feeling this won’t happen, leaving the door open for Rose. At first glance, the Englishman’s game doesn’t match the typical profile of an Augusta winner, but he ranks highly in birdies per round, greens in regulation and all-around ranking categories, which past results suggest are key. Add this to his four previous top 15 Masters finishes and the confidence gained from his peerless performance in the Ryder Cup and you have our tip.